Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Crunching Numbers


A few months back I posted a survey as part of researching the feasibility of moving to the Keys from New York.  So far not one person answered any of the questions so I am doing due diligence from other sources about the Keys.

One of the websites that I used was Sperling's.  They have tons of statistical data there on most of the areas in the U.S.  Similar to ESRI which is a very popular but high end site for demographics.   And this is where I got the numbers from so do not argue them with me, instead argue with Sperling's.  There are several sites that produce these statistics and I have seen different numbers, but they all agree on one general thing and that I will go over in my final comments.

I combined Key West, Marathon, East Egg and the Untied State (as the benchmark) all into various tables for comparison.  In the cells I colored them green for favorable conditions, red for unfavorable and white for where I have no opinion on.

Under the tables I am giving MY opinion on the data.  You may accept my opinion or not and come up with your own conclusions.  It is your choice.

Favorable
Unfavorable
No Opinion

People Key West, FL Marathon, FL East Egg, NY United States
Population 32,680 8,297 30,052 308,035,306
Pop. Density 1,557 983 3,014 87
Pop. Change -3.29% -16.63% 4.95% 8.07%
Median Age 41.7 47.8 42.8 37.3
Households 14,084 3,718 10,948 116,716,292
Household Size 2.21 2.19 2.73 2.58
Male Population 54.90% 51.89% 48.42% 49.27%
Female Population 45.10% 48.11% 51.58% 50.96%
Married Population 37.78% 50.49% 55.33% 47.02%
Single Population 62.22% 49.51% 44.67% 52.98%
Opinion:
Key West is smaller in size than East Egg yet it is a lot more populated but the density in East Egg is double that.  I see that there is a decline in population on both Key West and a large decline in Marathon which in a way is bad but at the same time it can open up more opportunities.  I feel that the decline is due to the downturn in the economy which can lead to opportunities.


Health Key West, FL Marathon, FL East Egg, NY United States
Air Quality (100=best) 84 84 36.5 82.8
Water Quality (100=best) 50 50 60 55
Superfund Sites (100=best) 99 98 10 71
Physicians per 100k 238.1 238.1 598.8 261.3
Opinion:
Hands down the Keys win out.  East Egg does have a slight advantage in water quality based on these figure but using the website by the Environmental Working Group paints a totally different picture.  And considering the amount of cancer that is on Long Island and the pockets of it, I am inclined to agree with the EWG website.  In a later post I will do a comparison of the drinking water qualities.

There are many more physicians than the Keys but looking at Nassau County and how dense it is, it makes sense.  Besides it is quality not quantity that matters.  A big downer for East Egg besides poor air quality and the Superfund sites.  We have a major one right here in town.  Plus numerous others surrounding the area.  Can we say "not good"?


Economy Key West, FL Marathon, FL East Egg, NY United States
Unemployment Rate 5.90% 6.40% 6.40% 8.60%
Recent Job Growth 1.19% 0.79% -1.61% 0.35%
Future Job Growth 36.48% 35.18% 30.38% 32.10%
Sales Taxes 7.50% 7.50% 8.63% 5.00%
Income Taxes 0.00% 0.00% 6.85% 4.70%
Income per Cap. $32,018 $27,894 $59,460 $26,154
Household Income $52,663 $44,031 $109,706 $50,935

ESTIMATED HOUSEHOLDS BY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Income Less Than 15K 11.74% 15.93% 5.28% 12.37%
Income between 15K and 25K 8.69% 11.20% 4.20% 10.53%
Income between 25K and 35K 10.60% 12.74% 5.09% 10.88%
Income between 35K and 50K 16.18% 16.46% 7.85% 15.37%
Income between 50K and 75K 21.85% 18.26% 12.98% 20.14%
Income between 75K and 100K 12.67% 10.41% 11.08% 12.41%
Income between 100K and 150K 10.64% 8.23% 16.97% 11.27%
Income between 150K and 250K 5.37% 4.35% 22.04% 5.01%
Income between 250K and 500K 2.08% 2.26% 13.33% 1.86%
Income greater than 500K 0.17% .021% 1.18% 0.16%

POPULATION BY OCCUPATION
Management, Business, and Financial Operations 14.07% 9.84% 22.45% 14.04%
Professional and Related Occupations 15.24% 12.85% 31.64% 20.61%
Service 25.72% 24.66% 11.72% 14.45%
Sales and Office 24.99% 21.77% 25.40% 26.75%
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 2.91% 4.36% 0.05% 0.70%
Construction, Extraction, and Maintenance 10.30% 15.04% 3.67% 9.42%
Production, Transportation, and Material Moving 6.77% 11.45% 5.06% 14.05%
Opinion:
Unemployment is slightly lower in Key West as compared to Marathon and East Egg.  But I can assure you that the unemployment here in East Egg and on Long Island is a lot higher as a whole.  There is growth in the Keys while jobs are leaving here.  Gee I wonder why?

Sales taxes, income taxes and property taxes in East Egg are a lot higher than the Keys.

There is a good sign for future job growth in the Keys which means opportunity.  Wages here in East Egg are higher over all.  That is because we have a lot of investment bankers, high end executives that make NYC their base of operations and of course a lot more physicians.  At least there is a good band of green in the 50K-100K range.


Cost of Living Key West, FL Marathon, FL East Egg, NY United States
Overall 133 130 220 100
Food 105 105 120 100
Utilities 93 93 137 100
Miscellaneous 99 99 124 100
Opinion:
Here is something that irks me.  I have heard how expensive it is to live in the Keys and that you need two jobs just to survive.  Knowing how bad it is here makes me wonder about that.  By looking at how expensive it is here in East Egg, all I can say is that I will take Key West any day.


Housing Key West, FL Marathon, FL East Egg, NY United States
Median Home Age 40.8 31.7 54.5 35.1
Median Home Cost $336,200 $305,200 $705,200 $153,800
Home Appreciation 1.38% 1.03% -3.41% 1.62%
Homes Owned 34.52% 32.99% 63.16% 57.69%
Housing Vacant 22.24% 39.91% 7.50% 11.38%
Homes Rented 43.24% 27.11% 29.31% 30.93%
Property Tax Rate $8.38 $8.38 $23.43 $11.20

OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS BY VALUE
Less Than $20,000 1.13% 7.27% 0.00% 2.72%
$20,000 to $39,999 2.83% 5.55% 0.00% 4.03%
$40,000 to $59,999 3.52% 2.34% 0.51% 5.58%
$60,000 to $79,999 1.73% 0.67% 0.31% 7.09%
$80,000 to $99,999 1.19% 2.06% 0.05% 8.80%
$100,000 to $149,999 6.00% 12.29% 0.15% 21.26%
$150,000 to $199,999 7.32% 12.72% 0.58% 14.87%
$200,000 to $299,999 22.52% 20.90% 2.70% 16.82%
$300,000 to $399,999 20.49% 11.96% 5.97% 7.83%
$400,000 to $499,999 12.49% 7.56% 8.34% 4.04%
$500,000 to $749,999 12.15% 10.47% 28.02% 4.05%
$750,000 to $999,999 4.56% 4.50% 21.51% 1.26%
$1,000,000 or more 4.08% 1.72% 31.84% 1.64%

HOUSING UNITS BY YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT
1999 to 2005 6.39% 10.45% 7.42% 13.71%
1995 to 1998 13.17% 10.11% 3.35% 14.31%
1990 to 1994 13.17% 10.11% 3.35% 14.31%
1980 to 1989 13.62% 24.29% 5.12% 13.87%
1970 to 1979 15.34% 29.96% 8.99% 16.17%
1960 to 1969 15.48% 13.26% 13.33% 11.70%
1950 to 1959 14.44% 10.33% 24.39% 11.08%
1940 to 1949 7.92% 0.94% 10.27% 6.02%
1939 or Earlier 13.66% 0.66% 27.13% 13.15%
Opinion:
People have told me how expensive housing is there in Key West.  Looking at the figures you can see that the housing here in East Egg is a hell of a lot higher.  In my neighborhood alone you cannot touch anything for less than $600,000 and these are not outlandish homes either.  You can also see that East Egg pays more than double the amount of property taxes than people do in the Keys which makes moving there all the more attractive.  And with the homes appreciating while they are depreciating here, in my opinion it is a good investment to buy there.

And to me an affordable house is between $100K and $400K.  With that in mind we see that there is a large amount of them within that range in the Keys and a very narrow band in East Egg.  And those in East Egg at that price they are shacks at best and they need extensive work.  And with million dollar home East Egg has more than you can count.  Not far from where we live a house with no yard went for $1.8 Million.  Yes if you want something decent around here you need to be a millionaire. 

The place we live in is a rental and we were able to get it at a nice price and this is a dump to begin with.  I have no idea what shapes the houses in the Key are in the green bands.  I would be interested in finding out.


Climate Key West, FL Marathon, FL East Egg, NY United States
Rainfall (in.) 39.9 40.2 49.2 36.5
Snowfall (in.) 0 0 24.7 25
Precipitation Days 107 103 116 100
Sunny Days 259 250 200 205
Avg. July High 89 90 81 86.5
Avg. Jan. Low 64.8 63 25.1 20.5
Comfort Index (higher=better) 28 28 47 44
UV Index 7.2 7.2 3.6 4.3
Elevation ft. 4 3 68 1,443
Opinion:
Looking at the numbers it seems that the Keys is the place to live.  The only things that are of concern is the high UV index, the comfort level and the elevation.  The UV Index is a lot higher in the Keys than NY but that is to be expected since the Keys is closer to the equator than NY.  Caution is required here to prevent burning and with my wife having fair skin, that is not good.  The comfort level is worse in the Keys than NY.  I have to question that for NY in the winter is horrible and it is very muggy here in the summer with little winds.

The elevation of the Keys is a little bothersome for a good storm surge and you are treading water.  I read that Roosevelt Blvd. was under 8 feet of water during Wilma.  Where we live in East Egg our house is about 40 feet above sea level so storm surges do not bother us but since we are a water front community there are areas that can and do go underwater with the right storm.  A good example was Sandy which did a lot of damage on the South Shore and minor to moderate damage on the north Shore.  Coastal areas on the North Shore did get flooded in any case.

That brings up a major concern and that is storms in general especially hurricanes.  The Keys are prime targets for them.  At least I would think that they are better equipped than NY is since they do get hit more frequently.



Crime Key West, FL Marathon, FL East Egg, NY United States
Violent Crime 7 4 1 4
Property Crime 8 4 1 4
Opinion:
Crime is everywhere but the statistics do not paint a pretty picture of crime in the Keys especially Key West.  I would guess that is because there are more bars in Key West than here and a person with a full belly of booze can do strange things.  But from living here in East Egg I can tell you that crime is a lot higher than shown here.  The local PD keeps a lot under wraps to help to protect the property values.



Final opinion:
There are advantages in living in East Egg, that is for sure.  Higher wage is one of those, if you can find work.  And you have a wide choice of health care providers as well.  But in the long run moving to the Keys is a very good idea based on these numbers.  The cost of living is a lot lower, housing is more affordable, property values are on the increase and there is growth potential in employment.

Now to move on to the next part of my due diligence project and that is to compare the same locations using City-Data and to finalize the water quality post.

'till next time

Map

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